Raise Your Gaze

How to convince people to get vaccinated… how about considering the odds of getting a break-through case after being vaccinated versus the odds of being exposed without vaccination?

The odds of a break-through case are currently something like .008 percent—8 thousandths of one percent!– compared with… who knows, but something more likely than .008 percent.

Ditch the politics on this, folks. If you’re afraid of the shot because it’s gonna hurt, or you think it was insufficiently tested or developed too quickly, that’s kind of silly and of marginal concern, respectively. But if you’re saying no because it’s something you just don’t want to be told to do or because Fox News has denigrated the science and the scientists, that’s a far more insidious and selfish thing.

You’re not doing this purely for you. You’re also doing it for the people around you. And yes, for people you don’t even know and may not even like.

And something else—no vaccine ever created has been 100% effective (though with a third dose of the polio vaccine, one gets very close to that). Think about the average seasonal flu shot—it’s around 60% effective. The Pfizer vaccine has been shown to be 95% effective after the second dose. Moderna is very close to that. But at the moment, we’re not even close to seeing the 5 or 6 percent breakthrough rate, based on the effectiveness of the two vaccines currently being administered. Instead of 5 or 6 percent, it is the aforementioned .008 percent!

Breakthrough cases have always been a given because no vaccine is 100 percent effective. It becomes a numbers game. The higher the number of people vaccinated, the more likely we’re going to see the breakthrough cases because the pool of recipients since the testing period has grown exponentially and represents a more real-world picture. Still, any betting or non-betting person should like these numbers.

For the vast majority of those who receive the covid-19 vaccine, it will work magnificently, and the only side effect is liable to be a sore arm.

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